JP Morgan is sticking to its base-case oil price forecast for 2025, projecting Brent crude will trade in the low-to-mid $60s, despite a sharp escalation in geopolitical tensions involving Iran, the U.

Banks are cutting estimates for the average oil price this year to below $60 a barrel amid production hikes from OPEC+ and flat crude demand growth, according to a survey from the law firm Haynes Boone LLP.

JP Morgan downplayed geopolitical concerns on Thursday and maintained its base case forecast for oil prices to stay in the low-to-mid $60s through 2025 and $60 in 2026, but said certain worst-case scenarios could send prices surging to double those levels.

Brent crude oil price surged on Friday, continuing the gains that started in May after Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear sites and killing some senior officials. This attack happened after the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) ruled that Iran was non-compliant with its international obligations, leading to potential sanctions.

Rather, it is geopolitical factors—specifically, escalating tensions in the Middle East—that are unsettling markets and pushing prices higher.

Twice per year, law firm Haynes Boone surveys banks that lend to the energy industry to take their pulse on where oil and gas prices are heading.

Following Israel's military operation on Iranian nuclear sites, J.P. Morgan warns oil prices could surge to $120 a barrel if Middle East tensions escalate. Brent crude futures already jumped nearly 9%,

Crude oil shows bullish continuation potential, targeting $68.98, despite today’s bearish candlestick hinting at a possible short-term pullback from recent breakouts.

Gas prices "will likely start to rise across much of the country later this evening in response to Israel's attacks on Iran, which have caused oil prices to surge," Patrick de Haan, the head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said on Friday in a post on X.

More than two dozen banks have cut their 2025 forecasts for oil prices in the wake of OPEC's move to accelerate production hikes later this summer, according to a new survey.

Oil prices have surged while global shares are lower after Israel struck Iranian nuclear and military targets in an attack that raised the risk of all-out war between them