The Media Has A Probability Problem The media’s demand for certainty — and its lack of statistical rigor — is a bad match for our complex world.

Redistricting changed the electoral calculus in several battleground states: Some legislative chambers got more competitive, while other previously contested chambers got sewn up for one party.

We looked at seven different ways of drawing congressional districts for the entire country — from pretty fair to seriously gerrymandered. See how the makeup of the U.S. House changes with each ...

When the new Congress comes into session in January, there will be more Black Republicans serving together on Capitol Hill than at any point since 1877. The number? Five. 1 For years, Republicans ...

Sources: American Community Survey, U.S. Election Atlas, ABC News Although they all have highly educated populations, these counties are otherwise reasonably diverse. The list includes major ...

Longtime readers of FiveThirtyEight are probably familiar with our pollster ratings: letter grades that we assign to pollsters based on their historical accuracy and transparency. Since 2008, we ...

If you’re one of the approximately 320 million Americans who don’t live in New York City, it might seem like its Democratic mayoral primary has gotten an outsized amount of media coverage. But ...

Self-reliance helps people thrive in a landscape that’s big and tough, but it can also put them at risk if they get into a personal crisis.

The police response to the insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, in which at least 39 law enforcement officers participated, has renewed conversation about racial b… ...

The Polls Are All Right Election polls sometimes get the answer wrong — but they’re about as accurate as they’ve always been.

The End Of A Republican Party Racial and cultural resentment have replaced the party’s small government ethos.

As we watch Michael Jordan vanquish each of his contemporaries in ESPN’s “The Last Dance” — which wraps up with its final two episodes on Sunday — it’s hard n… ...