Economies may face different challenges during oil supply disruptions depending on whether they primarily import or export oil. Comparing the effects of past disruptions in Canada, a large net oil ...

Over the past 20 years, the share of U.S. debt held by foreigners has fallen substantially. Demand for U.S. debt has partly ...

The SF Fed's Michael Fernandez and Brian Weaver discuss the bank's cash operations with the San Francisco Standard.

This article examines the geographic and policy overlap between Opportunity Zones and the Community Reinvestment Act, ...

Commercial banks have led the adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) in recent years. Evidence suggests that banks using AI ...

The U.S. unemployment rate has trended down for decades. Estimates after removing business cycle fluctuations show that the trend rate fell from 7.8% in 1976 to 4.8% in 2024. This decline reflects in ...

The natural rate of interest is the inflation-adjusted interest rate consistent with the economy operating at full capacity. Although this rate helps gauge the economy’s health, empirical estimates of ...

The relation between stocks and bonds indicates whether supply or demand shocks dominate the risks to economic activity. After two decades of concerns primarily about changes in demand, the stock-bond ...

Job-finding rates have declined over the past three years for people who are unemployed or are out of the labor force. Analysis shows that the decline in job finding for unemployed people has been ...

Thomas M. Mertens, senior vice president and associate director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, shared views on the current economy and the outlook from the Economic Research ...

The new SF Fed Policy Calibration Tool is designed to help construct a monetary policy path that aligns with one’s views of the economy and policy objectives. Applying the tool to recent tariff ...