Millennium celebrations - Alchetron, the free social encyclopedia
Millennium celebrations - Alchetron, the free social encyclopedia
Nov 24, 2017
alchetron.com
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第三個三千年思維。人從經驗當中能夠學到的東西基本都是錯的 「第三個三千年思維」 (Third Millennium Thinking，或稱《三禧思維》）的核心觀點指出，在充滿不確定性的現代，人類基於個人經驗總結的知識大多是錯誤的。本書源自加州大學伯克利分校的熱門課程，強調應用科學工具而非直覺來做決策，藉由辨識偏誤、運用邏輯來在亂世中進行清晰思考。 以下是該思維的核心要點： • 經驗的局限：我們從經驗中學習，往往只看到結果而忽略了過程中的概率與複雜性，容易導致「以偏概全」的錯誤結論。
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